restoration

I may have been wrong that all the pressure is on Nick Clegg, who has to solve his own political riddle.

From a number of comments on the BBC and elsewhere, it would seem that the Tories are already breaking rank.  The election campaign is widely seen by their grassroots support as a disappointment – how could they fail to win against the most unpopular PM in living memory?  The “Big Society” idea seems to have fallen on deaf ears and was roundly seen by the floating electorate as nothing more than a slogan.

Against this background of civil war possibly breaking out again on the fringes of the Tory party – and it will be the most hardcore right-wing Euro-Sceptic elements that are most critical as always – Cameron really can’t afford to give away too much if he is to retain the confidence of his Parliamentary Party.  If a deal is done, there will be an outbreak of nicey-nicey amongst his backbench MPs, but how long will this really last?  How long before he starts to sound a bit like his new pal John Major and derides the “b@st@rds” all around him?

This is all very similar to the dilemma that Nick Clegg faces.  A large proportion of their voters would most likely state that they cast their decision this way in order to prevent a Tory Government.  Clegg can claim of course that he is following through on his pre-poll promise to give the largest party first dibs on forming an administration, however, it was only in the last day or so that it became clear that this would be the Tories.  Up to this point, the polls were all over the place as to who would finish with most seats.

If Clegg does a deal to support a minority Tory administration – I couldn’t see it being a formal coalition – then he might get the support of his parliamentary party and federal executive.  However, he could then lose a lot of grassroots support, which might be extremely damaging at the next election.  I would myself among those who then find it very difficult to vote Lib Dem ever again at a national election.

This comes back to the stark fact that the most natural coalition is a Labour/Lib Dem one.  Brown has already laid out the terms and, together with the already pledged support of the SDLP and Alliance, it seems unlikely that they wouldn’t get the required support (or abstentions) from the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru in order to win a vote on the Queen’s Speech and pass a budget.  All of these parties have already said, either explicitly or implictly, that they would not similarly support a Tory Government, which is why Cameron needs Clegg so badly.

I stand by my view that we will know over this weekend whether or not a Tory/Lib Dem deal is on.  If it is clear that it won’t happen, I would expect Brown to move quickly and, if necessary, offer a huge personal sacrifice.

I was singing The Riddle by Nik Kershaw to myself earlier, which was a bit weird.  Loved this song when I was younger, even though the words are a bit nonsensical, but it seems to accurately sum-up how Nick Clegg is probably thinking right now – how the heck do we work this one out?

My predictions weren’t exactly spot on in terms of seat numbers, but the overall result was the same – the Tories won the most seats, followed by Labour after big losses and the Lib Dems trailing in 3rd with enough seats to hold the balance of power.  The democratic arithmetic is a little bit different though.

Assuming the Tories hold Thirsk and Malton, which won’t be balloted for three weeks due to the death of the UKIP candidate after nominations closed, they will have 307 seats.  This is 19 short of an absolute majority, but probably only just short of a working majority.  The only other party that are even remotely likely to automatically follow them are the DUP and the 8 seats bring them a “unionist” block up to 315.  Similarly, Labour can only 100% rely on the SDLP’s 3 seats, giving them 261, meaning that they absolutely need the Lib Dems in order to govern in any form.

Which brings us to the Lib Dems decision.  One thing that seems clear to me is that electorate doesn’t want to be subjected to this all again in short order – this result marks out that we need a more consensus politics to get the country out of the economic doldrums with the added benefit of pushing towards a more representative voting system.  Therefore, the onus is on them to make a deal of some sort with either Labour or the Tories.

Both Brown and Clegg have, quite rightly, allowed Cameron first shot at forming a government.  This avoids a potential constitutional crisis if the latter had ignored the existing convention and pressed on or Brown had insisted on his rights as PM in the same way as Ted Heath did in Feb 1974.  This has been conceded by Brown either as an act of humility, which I won’t rule out, or a realisation that anything else was democratic suicide.  Alternatively, he (or more accurately, Peter Mandelson) is hoping that Cameron fails and highlights that the Tories are not the party who could build consensus, given legitimacy to a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

It would appear that contact has now been made between Cameron and Clegg, following the former’s public plea this afternoon.  He struggled to use the word “coalition” but it is unclear what the exact terms will be on offer, other than the lightweight all-party inquiry on electoral reform.  However, I suspect that Cameron’s line of attack could be slightly different and place Clegg in the invidious position of having to choose between ideology and pragmatism.

If the Lib Dems position going into the negotiations is that fundamental electoral reform is a dealbreaker – suggested by Robert Peston on the BBC as being a basic cost of propping up a Labour administration – this is an anathema to the Tories.  Why would these turkeys vote for Christmas when, on the existing constitutional settlement of devolution, they could be shut out of Westminster Government for generations?

Therefore, I can see the question being posed by Cameron to Clegg being as follows: will you put party political ideology ahead of the altruistic opportunity to do some good in the “national interest”?  This phrase is important, because Clegg used it this morning.  If they are offered 3 or 4 cabinet posts, including at least one of the big 3 (Treasury, Home, Foreign) and the opportunity to make a significant contribution to the economic recovery, in order to drop an absolute requirement for electoral reform, this would be a very clever move.  It would be seen as a consensual strategy and strengthens Cameron’s claims to legitimacy.

How would Lib Dem voters feel about this?  The blogosphere and tweetnation have not reacted well to the suggestions of a deal that dumps calls for fundamental electoral reform, suggesting that Clegg could lose the favour of his own party’s support.  If a large proportion of Lib Dem voters have gone that way, like myself, on the basis that it would prevent the Tories taking power, it is a very bitter pill to swallow to see him turn around and support a Tory administration having given away his trump card.

Until it is clear whether or not Clegg will jump this way, it feels academic to talk about the machinations of a potential Lab/LD coalition.  I might have to come back to that question sooner rather than later as the indications today were that the financial markets may not look favourably upon uncertainty persisting well into next week.  I am expecting that we will know in the next 24 hours whether or not Cameron is on course for Downing Street.  This would leave a further 24 hours for a potential centre-left coalition to be formed – possibly including the SNP and Plaid Cymru, given that Labour has already opened those negotiations.

I have done my democratic duty and voted in the 2010 General Election.  It wasn’t really a fanfare moment, as there is a sense of dread in me as to what lies ahead over the next days and months.  Hopefully, the British electorate will see sense and prevent Dodgy Dave and his acolytes from ascending to power, but this is the most open election in my lifetime.

Even 1992 was alleged to be close, but in reality the Tories romped home.  Now, a combination of electoral geography and people power could mean the result is the tightest since 1974 Pt 1.  The added factor here though is the rise of the third way, in numbers which could actually translate to electoral success.  In February 1974, the Liberals (for they were yet to add the Democrat part) gained 19.3% of the vote but only 14 seats.  This gave them democratic validity to discuss a coalition with either the Tories or Labour but, ultimately, insufficient weight under the first-past-the-post system to have any real say in government.  In the end, Harold Wilson took up the challenge of governing with a minority, then went back to the country 8 months later and secured a majority mandate.

There are a number of parallels with this election and the potential outcomes, however, the distinct difference is that the third party now has the chance to significantly impact on the composition of the next UK government.  In 2005, the Lib Dems secured 22.1% of the vote and 62 seats.  The latest opinion polls have them on 26-28%, which the BBC’s less-than-scientific number cruncher translates to around 80 seats.  This is a real opportunity for change, so that we can no longer be ruled by a government which secures much less than half the votes cast.

So what do I think will happen?  First, some obvious predictions:

• The Tories will achieve the largest share of the vote.
• There will be some notable casualties, though I suspect no “Portillo Moment”.
• The Lib Dems will make significant progress in places they would never have previously expected.
• It will be a very bad night for Gordon Brown.

There seems to be very little chance of any party achieving an overall majority.  If the opinion polls are in anyway accurate, there is a good chance that the Tories will end up the highest number of seats – probably 280-290 – though there remains the possibility that tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem supporters could restrict this to as few as 260.  This seems unlikely to me, so I’ll go with an unambiguous 285.

Labour will do badly and lose seats not just to the Tories and Lib Dems in places that used to be purely red, but also a few surprising ones to the SNP.  Lets call it 250.

Discounting the speaker, who should get in despite a respectable showing from UKIP in his constituency, and the 18 Northern Irish seats, this leaves 96 seats.  Unfortunately, my gut feel is that the Greens will fall short in Brighton, but there is always a good chance that a couple of independents will come through.  I’ll call it 3 seats for this grouping, to err on the safe side.  That’s down to 93 seats.

The SNP should pick up at least 2, giving them 8.  I would expect Plaid Cymru to also pick one up, giving them 4.  This leaves a mighty 81 seats for Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.

Where do we go from here?  There have been hints that Cameron would try and form a minority administration should the Tories come out with the highest number of seats.  This would be a very dangerous constitutional path to go down.  Convention has it that the incumbent PM must resign and recommend to the Queen who should succeed him.  Accordingly, in a hung Parliament – as I predict we will get – Brown will get the first shot at forming a new government.  The Tory jitters on this subject seem to concern the delayed sitting of Parliament for a week, which they say will hand the initiative to the sitting government.  Whatever steam they are blowing out of their ears on this, I cannot see them breaching constitutional convention.

Simple justification for this is that it is tantamount to demanding the UK adopts a written constitution.  If Cameron marches on Downing Street and/or the Palace, demanding to be appointed PM on the basis that he didn’t agree the “rules”, then the only way to solve such an issue is to have a written constituion.  No party will want to politicise the monarchy and I can’t imagine Betty Windsor wanting to get involved in this dogfight.  For a party that stands resolutely behind the first-past-the-post system, I cannot see them wanting to open this particular can of worms.

However, in the event that the Tories win around 300 seats with approaching 40% of the vote – unlikely, but not out of the question – then I would expect Brown to do the good thing and resign, recommending Cameron as his successor.  As Tony has pointed out, the working majority need only be 305 seats.  It wouldn’t be an actual majority, but would provide sufficient opportunity to win a vote on the Queen’s Speech and then negotiate with the smaller groups on an issue-by-issue basis.  Let’s face it, any party that offers Alex Salmond a guaranteed referendum will get his support.

Assuming that this doesn’t happen, which is my prediction, I cannot see the Lib Dems and the Tories forming a coalition.  They are simply too far apart ideologically – the most pro-Europe party governing alongside one that can barely conceal its Europhobia?  Not likely.  Therefore, the only option will be for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

If my predicted seat numbers are correct, they would only have 331 seats, which is barely a majority.  The Lib Dems would see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to gain power.  The basic price will be that Brown goes, but I can see the argument being made that only those who stood in this election as a Prime Ministerial candidate (ignoring that this isn’t actually our system), should be appointed PM, then the quid pro quo is that Nick Clegg will seek the top job for himself.  There would be substantially dubious morality in Labour trying to have Harman, Miliband or Johnson installed, though I would suspect that Vince Cable might have to allow Miliband to be chancellor rather than he.  Expect him to get Mandy’s job instead.

Is that my ultimate prediction then?  Clegg for PM?  Logic follows that this could be the case, but my gut tells me otherwise.  My gut instinct also tells me that it won’t be Brown.  Does that leave Cameron?  Hopefully not, so where do we go from here…..my ultimate prediction then: another General Election before the summer is out.