restoration

I may have been wrong that all the pressure is on Nick Clegg, who has to solve his own political riddle.

From a number of comments on the BBC and elsewhere, it would seem that the Tories are already breaking rank.  The election campaign is widely seen by their grassroots support as a disappointment – how could they fail to win against the most unpopular PM in living memory?  The “Big Society” idea seems to have fallen on deaf ears and was roundly seen by the floating electorate as nothing more than a slogan.

Against this background of civil war possibly breaking out again on the fringes of the Tory party – and it will be the most hardcore right-wing Euro-Sceptic elements that are most critical as always – Cameron really can’t afford to give away too much if he is to retain the confidence of his Parliamentary Party.  If a deal is done, there will be an outbreak of nicey-nicey amongst his backbench MPs, but how long will this really last?  How long before he starts to sound a bit like his new pal John Major and derides the “b@st@rds” all around him?

This is all very similar to the dilemma that Nick Clegg faces.  A large proportion of their voters would most likely state that they cast their decision this way in order to prevent a Tory Government.  Clegg can claim of course that he is following through on his pre-poll promise to give the largest party first dibs on forming an administration, however, it was only in the last day or so that it became clear that this would be the Tories.  Up to this point, the polls were all over the place as to who would finish with most seats.

If Clegg does a deal to support a minority Tory administration – I couldn’t see it being a formal coalition – then he might get the support of his parliamentary party and federal executive.  However, he could then lose a lot of grassroots support, which might be extremely damaging at the next election.  I would myself among those who then find it very difficult to vote Lib Dem ever again at a national election.

This comes back to the stark fact that the most natural coalition is a Labour/Lib Dem one.  Brown has already laid out the terms and, together with the already pledged support of the SDLP and Alliance, it seems unlikely that they wouldn’t get the required support (or abstentions) from the Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru in order to win a vote on the Queen’s Speech and pass a budget.  All of these parties have already said, either explicitly or implictly, that they would not similarly support a Tory Government, which is why Cameron needs Clegg so badly.

I stand by my view that we will know over this weekend whether or not a Tory/Lib Dem deal is on.  If it is clear that it won’t happen, I would expect Brown to move quickly and, if necessary, offer a huge personal sacrifice.