restoration

I have done my democratic duty and voted in the 2010 General Election.  It wasn’t really a fanfare moment, as there is a sense of dread in me as to what lies ahead over the next days and months.  Hopefully, the British electorate will see sense and prevent Dodgy Dave and his acolytes from ascending to power, but this is the most open election in my lifetime.

Even 1992 was alleged to be close, but in reality the Tories romped home.  Now, a combination of electoral geography and people power could mean the result is the tightest since 1974 Pt 1.  The added factor here though is the rise of the third way, in numbers which could actually translate to electoral success.  In February 1974, the Liberals (for they were yet to add the Democrat part) gained 19.3% of the vote but only 14 seats.  This gave them democratic validity to discuss a coalition with either the Tories or Labour but, ultimately, insufficient weight under the first-past-the-post system to have any real say in government.  In the end, Harold Wilson took up the challenge of governing with a minority, then went back to the country 8 months later and secured a majority mandate.

There are a number of parallels with this election and the potential outcomes, however, the distinct difference is that the third party now has the chance to significantly impact on the composition of the next UK government.  In 2005, the Lib Dems secured 22.1% of the vote and 62 seats.  The latest opinion polls have them on 26-28%, which the BBC’s less-than-scientific number cruncher translates to around 80 seats.  This is a real opportunity for change, so that we can no longer be ruled by a government which secures much less than half the votes cast.

So what do I think will happen?  First, some obvious predictions:

• The Tories will achieve the largest share of the vote.
• There will be some notable casualties, though I suspect no “Portillo Moment”.
• The Lib Dems will make significant progress in places they would never have previously expected.
• It will be a very bad night for Gordon Brown.

There seems to be very little chance of any party achieving an overall majority.  If the opinion polls are in anyway accurate, there is a good chance that the Tories will end up the highest number of seats – probably 280-290 – though there remains the possibility that tactical voting between Labour and Lib Dem supporters could restrict this to as few as 260.  This seems unlikely to me, so I’ll go with an unambiguous 285.

Labour will do badly and lose seats not just to the Tories and Lib Dems in places that used to be purely red, but also a few surprising ones to the SNP.  Lets call it 250.

Discounting the speaker, who should get in despite a respectable showing from UKIP in his constituency, and the 18 Northern Irish seats, this leaves 96 seats.  Unfortunately, my gut feel is that the Greens will fall short in Brighton, but there is always a good chance that a couple of independents will come through.  I’ll call it 3 seats for this grouping, to err on the safe side.  That’s down to 93 seats.

The SNP should pick up at least 2, giving them 8.  I would expect Plaid Cymru to also pick one up, giving them 4.  This leaves a mighty 81 seats for Nick Clegg’s Lib Dems.

Where do we go from here?  There have been hints that Cameron would try and form a minority administration should the Tories come out with the highest number of seats.  This would be a very dangerous constitutional path to go down.  Convention has it that the incumbent PM must resign and recommend to the Queen who should succeed him.  Accordingly, in a hung Parliament – as I predict we will get – Brown will get the first shot at forming a new government.  The Tory jitters on this subject seem to concern the delayed sitting of Parliament for a week, which they say will hand the initiative to the sitting government.  Whatever steam they are blowing out of their ears on this, I cannot see them breaching constitutional convention.

Simple justification for this is that it is tantamount to demanding the UK adopts a written constitution.  If Cameron marches on Downing Street and/or the Palace, demanding to be appointed PM on the basis that he didn’t agree the “rules”, then the only way to solve such an issue is to have a written constituion.  No party will want to politicise the monarchy and I can’t imagine Betty Windsor wanting to get involved in this dogfight.  For a party that stands resolutely behind the first-past-the-post system, I cannot see them wanting to open this particular can of worms.

However, in the event that the Tories win around 300 seats with approaching 40% of the vote – unlikely, but not out of the question – then I would expect Brown to do the good thing and resign, recommending Cameron as his successor.  As Tony has pointed out, the working majority need only be 305 seats.  It wouldn’t be an actual majority, but would provide sufficient opportunity to win a vote on the Queen’s Speech and then negotiate with the smaller groups on an issue-by-issue basis.  Let’s face it, any party that offers Alex Salmond a guaranteed referendum will get his support.

Assuming that this doesn’t happen, which is my prediction, I cannot see the Lib Dems and the Tories forming a coalition.  They are simply too far apart ideologically – the most pro-Europe party governing alongside one that can barely conceal its Europhobia?  Not likely.  Therefore, the only option will be for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.

If my predicted seat numbers are correct, they would only have 331 seats, which is barely a majority.  The Lib Dems would see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to gain power.  The basic price will be that Brown goes, but I can see the argument being made that only those who stood in this election as a Prime Ministerial candidate (ignoring that this isn’t actually our system), should be appointed PM, then the quid pro quo is that Nick Clegg will seek the top job for himself.  There would be substantially dubious morality in Labour trying to have Harman, Miliband or Johnson installed, though I would suspect that Vince Cable might have to allow Miliband to be chancellor rather than he.  Expect him to get Mandy’s job instead.

Is that my ultimate prediction then?  Clegg for PM?  Logic follows that this could be the case, but my gut tells me otherwise.  My gut instinct also tells me that it won’t be Brown.  Does that leave Cameron?  Hopefully not, so where do we go from here…..my ultimate prediction then: another General Election before the summer is out.